Bats & Balls Notebook
Analyzing analytics
First of all, I’m old-school and on the outside. Cold hard fact.
Baseball has three simple phases, pitching, hitting and defense. Simplicity is being replaced by a world of advanced metrics. Not living and breathing new-age metrics every day leaves me confused at times.
There’s such a thing as defensive runs saved . . . reach rate . . . hard-rate hits . . . out of zone pitches seen . . . range factor/game . . . total zone rating . . . lowest hard hit rate . . . launch angles . . . exit velocity . . . spin rate . . .defensive efficiency and rotation ERA . . . outs above average. Just a miniscule tip of the advanced metric mammoth iceberg.
OK, let’s look at defensive runs saved. Mark Simon of The Athletic wrote a very interesting article in late September about defensive developments this season:
“The Diamondbacks set the mark for Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) — a stat Sports Info Solutions has tracked since 2003 — by smashing the previous record set by the 2016 Cubs. Their 150 DRS are easily the most in the majors this season (a slightly worse total than is listed on Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference, because this includes shift performance).”
So, as I read it, DRS has a different formula between three difference sources? Hmmmm.
Asterisk: The NL’s worst team in DRS? Phillies, who won 80 games; D-Backs won 82.
I’ve also read:
“No defensive metric is entirely trustworthy.”
“There’s a stat called meatball percentage and we’re up there in takes.”
“We don’t like the ball on the ground because there’s no slug on the ground.”
“If a team doesn’t value a guy with a low FIP and a high ERA they’re not paying attention.”
“Data, including (catcher) framing stats, can be flawed.”
“Sabermetrics claim strikeouts don’t matter.”
A massive heard of new categories have stampeded the game, symbols that formerly appeared on eye charts. A teeny-tiny example: xwOBA, wOBA, FIP, xFIP, wRC, ISOP, WAR, bWAR, dWAR, WAA, sRC+, wRC+, UZR, DIPS, SECA, PWAR, RA9Avg-RA9.
WAR seems to carry a lot of weight. But I’ve read: a formula for WAR can be different depending upon the source . . . there is no one way to determine WAR . . . it is necessarily an approximation and will never be as precise or accurate as one would like.
Whatever.
In looking over stats on ESPN.com, Cesar Hernandez has a higher WAR than Bryce Harper, 1.4–1.3. That means Cesar is better than Bryce. Hard to believe, Harry.
(Bats & Balls Notebook will be posted every Wednesday until spring training begins. Photo: Miles Kennedy).
